作者：英国《金融时报》居伊•德•容凯尔(Guy de Jonquieres)
2007年1月15日 星期一
对
亚洲而言，2007年将是又一个剧变之年。不过，对于消息灵通人士来说，即使最不可能的事情发生了，他们也不会大惊小怪。英国《金融时报》动员全球情报网，并请来中国西部一位道士提供专门服务，为读者提供未来12个月预测。
1月，北京：针对中国不断扩大的对美贸易顺差，美国国会威胁要对华贸易制裁。为消弭这种威胁，中国派出采购代表团赴美，命令采购团在美国各地的零售网点批量采购。
2月，台北：检调单位对为数不多、尚未因涉嫌腐败接受调查的台湾政界人物开展调查，随后，台湾的政治候选人全军覆没。
东京：日本宣布，已开发出低成本的合成铁矿石和煤。澳大利亚经济滑向衰退，出口崩溃，悉尼证交所出现有史以来最大单日跌幅。
3月，北京：中国采购代表团报告，在搜遍美国所有购物中心之后，根本找不到非中国制造的消费品。于是，北京转而宣布收购沃尔玛(Wal-Mart)的计划，并将其更名为“友谊商店”。
4月，内比都(Naypyidaw，缅甸新首都)：在经历了数十年军事统治之后，缅甸表示将实行民主制度，下月举行大选。
北京：中国终于公布了中国央行决定人民币汇率的一篮子货币的构成。其主要币种是：澳门元、巴拿马货币巴波亚、缅甸货币缅元、不丹货币努尔特鲁姆和老挝货币基普。
5月，平壤：金正日宣布，朝鲜开发出全球最大的硅片——有两个足球场那么大，他欢呼国家科学成就取得重大进步。
内比都：缅甸举行大选，由津巴布韦官方观察员监督。将军们通过选举占据所有议会席位。
6月，新德里：印度政府终于放弃了自己运营国家的努力，决定把工作外包给一个总部位于班加罗尔的IT企业财团WeGov，牵头企业是信息系统技术公司(Infosys)和威普罗(Wipro)。
东京：日本最后一位种植水稻的农夫去世，享年102岁。日本政府警告，国家安全受到严重威胁，因而将水稻进口关税提高10000%，给了世界贸易谈判多哈回合致命的一击。
7月，华盛顿：最后一个借款方偿还了贷款，国际货币基金组织(IMF)没有了经常收入，该机构被宣告破产。东亚各国联合起来提供紧急纾困，条件是IMF同意进行深度结构改革，厉行节约，并接受中国人民银行的严格监督。
伦敦：在朝鲜宣布大规模生产巨型半导体晶片之后，全球黄沙价格一路飙升。中国立刻收购了撒哈拉沙漠，旨在保证硅供应的安全，同时表示不会干预该地区的内部事务。
8月，新德里：有报道称，印度政府外包合同的许多工作，是在美国的呼叫中心进行的，这引发了印度各城市的游行示威。印度工会抗议收入过低的美国人“正在抢印度中产阶级的饭碗”，要求对美国出口实行制裁、并要求美元升值。
悉尼：澳大利亚放弃举办21个成员参加的亚太经济合作(Asia-Pacific Economic Co-operation)论坛年度峰会的计划，因为该国发现悉尼歌剧院太小、容纳不了所有的代表、甚至连站的地方也不够。峰会取消后，巴布亚新几内亚成了唯一可供选择的会议地点，巴布亚新几内亚表示，领导人在按照惯例、身穿当地服装拍摄集体照时，要穿上防弹背心。
9月，华盛顿：有谣传称亚洲各国央行正考虑将外汇储备多样化、转换成贝壳类货币，这引发了美元的恐慌性抛售。美国财政部请求IMF紧急援助，却被告知，应拨打北京的某个电话号码。
悉尼：澳大利亚投资银行麦格理(Macquarie)对自己提出了一个恶意收购报价。此前，这家收购意愿旺盛的投行对金融分析师表示，已经没有其它合适的收购目标了。
10月，日内瓦：一份世界卫生组织(WHO)研究发现，呼吸香港空气对健康的威胁比每天吸80支烟还严重。香港特首曾荫权(Donald Tsang)宣称，坚定领导和果断行动的时代已经到来，他雇了一名一流的美国烟草业游说人士，来戳穿有关香港空气质量的“无端谣言”。
新德里：负责治理印度的外包财团WeGov单方面终结合同，它表示，这个任务连最聪明的人也无法完成。
11月，华盛顿：美国请求中国购买更多的美元，以支撑这一每况愈下的货币，并提出用美国第七舰队(Seventh Fleet)作抵押。北京表示拒绝，称自己已经拥有美国海军，因为其经费本来就是向中国借来的。
美元进一步贬值，达到了3美元兑1欧元。美国国会辩论要不要把美元钞票上的题字从“我们信赖上帝”改为“愿我的救世主常在”。
马尼拉：在西联汇款(Western Union)的全球汇款系统发生故障、切断了外出务工者的汇款后，菲律宾经济陷入低迷。
12月，新德里：在经历了没有政府的两个月之后，印度的工业产出飙升至创纪录水平。公路、电站和机场建设活动都骤然增加。全国识字率提高了5个百分点。
东京：日本消费价格较上年同期提高了0.04%。日本央行(Bank of Japan)警告，日本经济陷于快速蔓延的恶性通货膨胀中，于是，将利率提高到10%。
译者/何黎
For
Asia, 2007 will be another year of breathtaking change. But to those in the know, even the most unlikely turn of events need not come as a surprise. Calling on its worldwide intelligence network and the exclusive services of a shaman in western China, the FT offers readers a preview of the next 12 months.
January. Beijing: in an effort to fend off the threat of trade sanctions by the US Congress over its soaring bilateral trade surplus, China dispatches purchasing missions to the US with instructions to make bulk buys at retail outlets across the country.
February. Taipei: supplies of political candidates run out after prosecutors launch probes into the few Taiwanese politicians not already under investigation for alleged corruption.
Tokyo: Japan announces that it has developed low-cost synthetic substitutes for iron ore and coal. Australia's economy slides into recession, exports collapse and the Sydney stock exchange records its biggest ever one-day loss.
March. Beijing: Chinese purchasing missions report that after scouring US shopping malls they have been unable to find any consumer products that are not Chinese-made. Beijing announces plans instead to buy Wal-Mart and rename it The Friendship Store.
April. Naypyidaw: after decades under military rule, Burma says it will introduce democracy, calling general elections for next month.
Beijing: China finally reveals the composition of the basket of currencies used by its central bank to determine the renminbi exchange rate. Its main components are the Macau pataca, the Panama balboa, the Burmese kiat, the Bhutan ngultrum and the Laotian kip.
May. Pyongyang: hailing a momentous advance in national scientific achievement, Kim Jong-il announces that North Korea has developed the world's largest silicon chip, covering the area of two football fields.
Naypyidaw: Burma holds general elections, monitored by official Zimbabwean observers. Generals are elected to every parliamentary seat.
June. New Delhi: India's government finally gives up trying to run the country and decides to outsource the job to WeGov, a Bangalore-based consortium of IT companies led by Infosys and Wipro.
Tokyo: Japan's last rice farmer dies at the age of 102. Warning of a grave threat to national security, the government raises tariffs on rice imports to 10,000 per cent, dealing a final blow to the Doha world trade round.
July. Washington: the International Monetary Fund is declared insolvent after its last remaining borrower repays its loans, leaving the institution without a regular income. East Asian countries band together to offer an emergency bail-out, on condition that the IMF agrees to deep structural reforms, savage austerity measures and strict surveillance by the People's Bank of China.
London: world sand prices skyrocket after North Korea announces plans to mass produce giant semiconductor chips. China immediately acquires the Sahara desert in a move intended to guarantee the security of silicon supplies, saying it will not intervene in the region's internal affairs.
August. New Delhi: reports that much of the work on India's government outsourcing contract is being performed at US call centres trigger demonstrations in Indian cities. Protesting that underpaid Americans are “stealing middle-class Indian jobs”, Indian trade unions demand sanctions on US exports and the revaluation of the dollar.
Sydney: Australia abandons plans to host the annual summit of the 21-member Asia-Pacific Economic Co-operation forum after discovering that the Sydney opera house is too small to accommodate all the delegates, even standing up. The summit is cancelled when Papua New Guinea emerges as the only alternative venue and says leaders will be required to wear bullet-proof Kevlar vests for their traditional group photograph in local costume.
September. Washington: rumours that Asian central banks are considering diversifying their foreign exchange reserves into cowrie shells spark panic selling of the US dollar. The US Treasury requests emergency IMF assistance but is directed to a telephone number in Beijing.
Sydney: Macquarie, the acquisitive Australian investment bank, launches a hostile takeover bid for itself after telling financial analysts that there are no other suitable targets left.
October. Geneva: a World Health Organisation study finds that breathing Hong Kong's air poses greater risks to health than smoking 80 cigarettes a day. Declaring that the time has come for firm leadership and decisive action, Donald Tsang, Hong Kong's chief executive, hires a top US tobacco industry lobbyist to put an end to “baseless rumours” about the territory's air quality.
New Delhi: WeGov, the outsourcing consortium charged with governing India, terminates its contract unilaterally, saying the assignment has defeated the efforts of the best brains.
November. Washington: the US asks China to purchase more dollars to prop up the sinking currency and offers the Seventh Fleet as collateral. Beijing declines, saying it already owns the US Navy because it was paid for with borrowed Chinese money in the first place.
The dollar falls further, reaching $3 to the euro. Congress debates a change in the inscription on dollar bills from “In God we trust” to “I hope that my redeemer liveth”.
Manila: the Philippines economy slumps after Western Union's global money transfer system breaks down, cutting off flows of worker remittances.
December. New Delhi:
after two months without a government, India's industrial output soars to record levels. Sudden increases are reported in road, power station and airport construction activity. The national literacy rate improves by five percentage points.
Tokyo: Japanese consumer prices rise by 0.04 per cent year-on-year. Warning that the economy is in the grip of galloping hyper-inflation, the Bank of Japan raises interest rates to 10 per cent.
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